At first glance, Super Bowl Sunday’s lineup of brands and celebrities touting them to a global audience looks standard.
Viewers tuning into the Feb. 9 game on Fox will be greeted by the usual phalanx of hunky movie stars and aging idols, chart-topping singers, adorable animals and football legends touting snack treats and booze, fast cars and faster tax preparation.
Yet underlying the gaggle of talent is a shift in its makeup, which, intentionally or not, mirrors that of NFL and Super Bowl viewership: More women are entering the picture.
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In the past three years, according to research performed by marketing professor Kim Whitler, the number of Super Bowl ads that have had male-only celebrities has declined by 26% compared to a similar cycle from 2015-2017. Consequently, the number of ads that include both male and female celebrities has increased by 79%.
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A glance at USA TODAY’s Ad Meter results from that period almost feels like peering into a time capsule. Here were Bryan Cranston, Kevin Hart, Ryan Reynolds and Steve Harvey, among many others, carrying their spots themselves with only passing assistance from non-playable characters.
Contrast that to this Sunday, when viewers will be greeted by Willem Dafoe paired with Catherine O’Hara, Orlando Bloom opposite Drew Barrymore, Becky G and the Mountain Dude, among many others. Those spots will duck in before or after cutaways to the world’s most famous pop star, for the second consecutive year, watching the game from a suite.
“By 2024,” says Whitler, marketing professor at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business, “you have more (product) categories represented and more diffusion. More variety of advertisers promoting their products in part because they’re seeing greater value in reaching this broader audience.
“More male-female celebrities and a decline of male-only celebrities from beginning to end. And a significant increase in the percentage of ads that were men and women celebrities.”
Now, the audience is increasingly reflecting why advertisers are paying $7 million to $8 million per 30 seconds of airtime this year.
“I love that more women are watching the game,” says Greg Lyons, chief marketing officer for PepsiCo., whose Baja Blast spot will air during the game. “The Super Bowl is for everybody. We need to have ads on it that resonate with women and men and not be too targeted.
“That wouldn’t be a good media buy to be too targeted on the Super Bowl.”
And Sunday’s audience that likely will be the biggest and most diverse in game history.
The Taylor Effect
Swift’s romance with Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce remains a plot point, even if the story reached a seeming apex when they shared an on-field kiss following the Chiefs’ overtime victory one year ago.
Yet the pop star’s return to the game’s narrative will mark an interesting measuring stick for her lasting impact on the game and league.
So far, the one-year sample is eye-opening.
“A few million more viewers did tune in because of that,” says Syracuse University professor emeritus Dennis Deninger, author of The Football Game That Changed America. “Last year’s Super Bowl was the record for tune-in, and that helped.
“The celebrity impact helped the NFL. And it doesn’t hurt that the Kansas City Chiefs have returned.”
Last year’s numbers were startling: An estimated 123.7 million viewers smashed the record set the previous year, while the number of people who watched at least a portion of the game also set a high-water mark: 202.4 million, dwarfing the 184 million from the previous year.
And the share of audience that was female likely set a record as well: 49% of viewers, up from what Deninger says is typically a 53-47 male-female split. It’s also a massive leap from a gender split during regular season games that’s more typically close to two-thirds male, although that gap has narrowed as the NFL gains popularity with women and girls.
Now, the Swift-centric viewer joins a different demographic, that of potential returning customer. And the rate of retention may set a course for decades of further NFL domination.
“She gave a whole new young demographic a reason to pay attention,” says Whitler. “That exposure will stick for some of them. Some of that new demographic will say, ‘I really enjoyed that. I liked the party, I liked the community aspect, I enjoyed the game.’
“You have a subscription-based economy. Part of the goal is not just to have trial, but to get repeat purchase. She generated trial of the NFL among this young cohort, this whole new demographic, who has 50 or 60 years to appreciate it.
“The long tail effect of Taylor could be if 10, 15 or 20% of the community she brought in loves it enough that they come back a second year and love it even more and come back a third year and fourth year and fifth year.
“She was the catalyst to opening the door to a new demographic that potentially could become loyal for 40, 50, 60 years. That’s powerful.”
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‘Catalyst to broadening the NFL community’
In that sense, the increasingly coed composition of commercial lineups will be meeting the newbies where they are.
Certainly, the big game always featured pitches that crossed generations and tried to reach avid football fans and also the millions of casuals tuned in – much more complex than a low-stakes buy on a college basketball game or an HGTV program.
The gap between the Super Bowl and virtually every other medium will only continue to grow, certainly if at least a few drive-by watchers stick around.
Yes, somehow the biggest game will keep getting bigger, and this year’s viewership numbers will go a long way toward illustrating just how quick and vast – and lucrative – that growth will be.
“If they had a good experience last year, why would you not want to repeat it?” says Whitler. “It could be a very important catalyst to broadening the NFL community and drive greater interest from more, varied brands to want to reach this varied audience.
“Which drives up demand for Super Bowl advertising. Which drives up dollars.”