After rising 190 percent over the last five years, the uranium spot price and the broader uranium market remain poised for further growth, fueled by short supply and a slew of positive demand catalysts.
At this year’s Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC), panelists Rick Rule, Nick Hodge, Fabi Lara and Jordan Trimble offered an overview of key market catalysts, both for the near term and long term.
Moderated by Jesse Day of Commodity Culture, the discussion started with a look at the state of the sector.
“We’ve heard a lot about artificial intelligence (AI) data centers (and) small modular reactors, and obviously the main theme underlying all of this is a production shortfall,” said Day on stage at the event.
“There is not enough uranium being produced today to meet current reactor demands.”
From there, Day invited each participant to share their macro overview of the uranium landscape.
Starting the discussion, Hodge, who is publisher at Digest Publishing, pointed to recent comments made by the newly elected Trump administration as evidence of a pro-nuclear stance in America.
“Even the Treasury secretary, during his confirmation hearing, was talking about — not a clean energy race, but an energy race with China, who is building coal plants, who is building something like 29 reactors right now,’ he said.
More broadly, Hodge underscored the growing global commitment to increase nuclear energy production.
“We had a COP meeting late in 2024 where 31 countries agreed to triple nuclear capacity by 2050,’ he said.
‘That’s up from 20 countries the year before that — a 50 percent increase in the number of countries who said they want to triple nuclear capacity.”
Uranium supply challenges not going away
Offering his thoughts, Trimble who is president, CEO and director of Skyharbour Resources (TSXV:SYH,OTCQX:SYHBF) pointed to the substantial shortfall that is already materializing, noting that annual demand stands at 200 million pounds, while mine supply comes in at only 150 million to 160 million pounds.
“The age of abundant secondary supply has come to an end,” he said.
‘(We) don’t have that buffer that we’ve had for the last 50 or 60 years. So as that depletes, the upward pressure on the price not being able to tap into these secondary supplies is going to become more and more extreme.”
Adding to this pressure will be utility companies.
According to Trimble, a sluggish long-term contracting market contributed to uranium’s weak performance in 2024, with utilities securing just 106 million pounds — well below replacement levels.
However, he expects a surge in contracting in 2025, with volumes projected to exceed 180 million pounds as western utilities restock depleted inventories and secure long-term supply.
Longer term, the steady rate of new nuclear reactor builds is also a significant demand catalyst.
As noted by the World Nuclear Association, there are currently 65 reactors being built globally, with another 95 in the design stage. These new builds will join the 440 operational reactors located in 31 countries, as well as Taiwan.
Buying opportunity for uranium investors?
For Lara, who is founder of the Next Big Rush, it’s important to hone in on what may move a specific stock.
“What I look at is what retail looks at, and what retail looks at currently is the spot price,” she said. “There is a massive correlation of spot price moving and the smaller equities moving with it. So that is something that I keep watching.’
She expects financial players to re-enter the uranium market, driving prices higher after last year’s slowdown.
Lara also acknowledged that contracting volumes have remained low; however, term prices have not declined as much as the spot market. She emphasized that the long-term trend remains positive.
Commenting on the smaller crowd size at the panel and uranium sentiment on social media, she suggested that there is a potential buying opportunity as the market regains momentum.
Easy money has been made, ‘sure money’ still on the table
Rounding out the panel was Rule, proprietor at Rule Investment Media.
The veteran investor and speculator also reassured attendees that there is still money to be made in uranium.
“The basic supply, demand fundamentals for uranium are really good,” said Rule.
“I want to say that the easy money has been made. The easy money is made in the transition from hate to love. That’s over, but I think the sure money is ahead of us,’ he explained. “The sure money is ahead of us because of supply and demand imbalances; the sure money is ahead of us because the political winds have changed.”
These tailwinds, paired with utilities contracting, are the factors that signal to Rule that the “sure money” is ahead..
Unlike other commodities, uranium contracts can extend up to 20 years, providing rare top-line certainty, he explained.
This shift is expected to lower the sector’s cost of capital and enable smaller companies with strong deposits to secure financing or facilitate M&A.
Big tech’s AI pursuits need nuclear power
With the nuclear energy renaissance in full swing, supply security is becoming increasingly important. This is especially true in the US, where electricity generated from nuclear reactors supplies almost 20 percent of the nation’s needs.
Despite being the largest market for uranium, US mine supply fills only 5 percent of the country’s demand annually. This makes the US dependent on uranium imports from Canada, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia and Australia.
US uranium imports were in sharp focus in May 2024, when then-President Joe Biden signed the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, banning Russian-produced low-enriched uranium until 2040. The legislation took effect in August 2024, though limited waivers may be granted until 2028 to support critical US nuclear energy companies.
The US uranium supply picture was further blurred when new President Donald Trump threatened to levy 10 to 25 percent tariffs on a wide range of imports originating from Canada.
Against this backdrop, Amir Adnani, president, CEO and founder of Uranium Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:UEC), painted a picture of opportunity for the US during his VRIC talk with host Jay Martin.
Adnani praised Chris Wright, Trump’s pick for energy secretary, pointing out that he’s an oil and gas executive with ties to small modular reactors. “Because of power demand growth in the US, there is an ‘everything is needed’ mentality and approach to energy in the US,” he said. “And as a result, I think whether we call it American energy dominance or some of these terms, Trump is going to give it, ‘drill, baby drill,’ as he likes to say.”
Adnani explained that Trump’s campaign battle cry served as a signal to the energy sector.
“If you talk to executives in Midland, Texas, for example, they say, ‘Geez, we don’t want to drill anymore.’ The gas boom, the oil markets are oversupplied. But the reality is, when Trump says, ‘drill, baby drill,’ what he really means is ‘energy, energy, energy,’ and that could not be better captured in the trends we’re seeing with technology companies,” he said.
The uranium executive then went on to explain that a single ChatGPT query consumes 100 times more energy than a simple Google search. “When you look at power demand growth in the US for the last 20 years, it was basically flat,” said Adnani. “And now, when you look at power demand growth in the US just to the end of this decade, the next five years, it’s 10 percent annualized growth, and that growth is coming from the tech sector.”
To meet these rising energy needs Adnani sees nuclear as the only viable solution.
“One pound of uranium generates the same amount of energy as 3,000 barrels of oil,” he said.
“These big tech companies are thinking about what kind of power they can use. (Uranium is) going to have the energy density, it’s going to use less land, space, it’s going to need less transportation. Doesn’t need to involve geopolitically unstable regions. They’re really coming to this hard conclusion.”
Stay tuned for more event coverage, including video interviews with many of the experts who attended.
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.